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11/29/2021

Cyber Monday Sales On Track For Flat Year

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Cyber Monday sales are projected to be flat vs. last year, at $11 billion.
Cyber Monday sales are projected to be flat vs. last year, at $11 billion.

Although consumers are clearly more comfortable going into stores this holiday season than during the pandemic last year, today’s deeply engrained digital habits and concerns about the supply chain are pushing more online than ever before, while inflation and few discounts may take additional wind out the holiday sails.

Many of the holiday weekend receipts still need to be tallied, but a look at the early results indicate what many have been predicting since at least the fall: Consumers are looking to stores for experiences but heading online for conveniences.

“The consumer’s general hunger for the experience of shopping in-person, combined with their longing for missed traditions in 2020 will be evident over the holidays,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for NPD Group. “As much as the ability to deliver products, retail industry success will be fueled by its ability to deliver the holiday spirit.”

[See also: Will Walmart Have a Jolly Holiday Season?]

“With the smoothing out of demand throughout the entire season, peak days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday have less of an impact than previous years,” noted Rob Garf, VP and general manager of retail at Salesforce. “It’s been less about Cyber Week and more about Cyber November. It’s always a retailer’s dream to pull demand early in the fall, and with supply chain bottlenecks and fears of inflation, consumers did shop early and often.”

RIS News has rounded up some of the latest results and insider perspective for a snapshot of the busiest time of year.

Holiday Weekend Receipts

  • Visits to physical stores on Thanksgiving dropped 90.4% compared to 2019 — in part driven by an increasing number of retailers that closed their doors for the day. (Sensormatic Solutions)
  • Black Friday store shopping increased 47.5% compared with 2020, but it plunged 28.3% vs. the pre-pandemic 2019 levels. (Sensormatic Solutions)
  • Online spending reached $7 billion on Thanksgiving (up 1% vs. last year) and $13.4 billion on Black Friday (up 5%). (Salesforce)
  • Cyber Monday sales are projected to be flat vs. last year, at $11 billion. (Salesforce)
  • Top products included Vtech toys, FIFA 22, and the Amazon Echo Show on Thanksgiving, and the Nintendo Switch, Barbie and Oculus on Black Friday. (Adobe Analytics)

Spending Plans

  • Consumers are projected to spend an average of $448 during the Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday period, up 12% from 2020. (Deloitte)
  • 35% of shoppers will spend more over the holidays than they originally planned, but 37% of consumers said there are fewer discounts vs. last year. (Deloitte)
  • 22% of Black Friday shoppers planned to spend $300-$500; 21% planned to spend $100-$200; 20% planned to spend $200-$300; and 12% earmarked $750-$1,000 for the day. (Attest)
  • 65% of shoppers said they are “comfortable” shopping in-person regardless of the ongoing pandemic. (Attest)
  • Of those planning to shop on Black Friday, 58% planned to make a purchase both in-person and online. (Attest)
  • 22% of baby boomer internet users plan to do their entire holiday shopping in stores. Just 3% of millennials and Gen Z-ers said the same. (eMarketer)
  • 22% anticipate using digital and contactless payments in-store more than they did in 2020. (Forrester)
  • U.S. consumers will spend 20% more time in mobile shopping apps this season vs. last year. (App Annie)
  • 46% will use mobile apps to make a purchase. (Consumer Technology Association)
  • 22% of U.S. consumers plan to gift more environmentally friendly or sustainable products this holiday season. (Forrester)

[See also: Nordstrom’s and Macy's Holiday Experiences]

Pricing

  • The average order value of transactions in early November 2021 were 19% higher than in early November 2021. (Constructor)
  • The average selling price (ASP) over “Cyber Week” (Tuesday-Sunday) is up 13% in the U.S. and 6% globally. The average discount over Cyber Week was 26% in the U.S. (down 9% vs. last year) and 23% globally (down 8%). (Salesforce)

Supply Chain

  • 63% of holiday shoppers have already experienced stockouts (as of Nov. 22), and 54% are reporting higher prices. (Deloitte)
  • 30% of U.S. online shoppers plan to check online whether an item is in stock before going into the store. (Forrester)
  • 47% of consumers expect to use technology to check product availability. (Consumer Technology Association)
  • 66% of consumers say having more sales/promotions on seasonal items would make the grocery shopping experience better, while 50% would like to see more items in stock (84.51°) 

Holiday Timing

  • The 10 busiest U.S. shopping days in 2021 are expected to account for 40% of all holiday traffic. (Sensormatic Solutions)
  • As of Nov. 8, 68% of shoppers already have their holiday gift shopping complete. (84.51°)

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